Global Shifts in Power: New Places, New Faces

"To hold a pen is to be at war." - Voltaire

In the past, the ability to write was a form of power. In the 18th Century, when French Enlightenment writer, philosopher, and historian Voltaire lived, that power could cause war. During that time, power was largely centralized in Europe. It has shifted since then and continues to move. Today, economic opportunity is being democratized  in the digital age, with countries that have younger populations and entrepreneurial tendencies playing an important role. This signals what global power may look like in the future. Who will be the new faces of global power?

Today, we can look at power-driven by the disruptive forces of technology, which have given rise to the world's largest technology companies today, including Amazon, Alphabet (Google), and Apple. It is common to look less at the emerging places and faces of disruption. Providing important clues, the UN has released its new population forecasts. They show an aging of significant parts of the world and a rise of young populations in other regions.

Highlights include: Germany will lose 12% of its working-age population in the coming decade, likely stalling economic growth. India will add 105 million people to its working-age population by 2034, presenting vast opportunities for business leaders. China's working-age population will shrink by 43 million, while its 65+ year-olds will increase by 93 million. Despite this, policymakers aim for 5% growth. In the US, there are currently 33% more young people than old. This gap will close in a decade, with social security already the largest government expenditure. By 2034, Africa will have the same number of 65+ year-olds as the US but nearly five times the number of working-age people.

With these demographic shifts, will there be changes in the power to disrupt existing industries, companies, the international economic development sector, and even global balances of power? Who will be the places and faces of power across the world?

We can look to nations with young populations for signals of what is ahead:

Nigeria: The Rise of Digital Entrepreneurs 

Nigeria, with a median age of 17 years, showcases the power of youth-driven entrepreneurship. 

Iyinoluwa Aboyeji, co-founder of Andela and Flutterwave, has used technology to link African talent with global opportunities and establish a payment infrastructure. Aboyeji has partnered with Mia von Koschitzky-Kimani to launch Accelerate Africa, an accelerator program  backed by a $750,000 grant from the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). Although it offers no direct investment, Accelerate Africa will select ten startups from across the continent to participate.

Temie Giwa-Tubosun founded LifeBank, a digital medical distribution company that has facilitated the delivery of essential medical products, including blood, oxygen, plasma, and vaccines to hospitals in Nigeria since 2016. Giwa-Tubosun was the winner of the 2020 Global Citizen Prize for Business Leader. 

Indonesia: E-Commerce and Super Apps 

In Indonesia, young entrepreneurs are transforming the market with groundbreaking solutions. 

William Tanuwijaya, founder of Tokopedia, built one of Southeast Asia's largest e-commerce platforms and thereby empowering millions of sellers and buyers. 

Nadiem Makarim, founder of Gojek, developed a super app offering services from transportation to food delivery and revolutionized how people interact with services. Born in 1984, Makarim is Indonesia’s current minister of education, culture, research, and technology.. 

Kenya: Innovators in Crisis and Education 

Kenya's startup ecosystem is driven by young entrepreneurs leveraging technology to solve local problems. 

Tonee Ndungu, founder of Kytabu, created a digital textbook platform making education more accessible and affordable. Kytabu leverages AI to Empower your students, educators, and institutions with engaging tools.

Juliana Rotich, co-founder of Ushahidi, developed a platform for crowdsourced crisis information that “empowers people through citizen-generated data to develop solutions that strengthen their communities.” Rotich is currently the Head of the Department for Fintech Integration Solutions at Safaricom and was appointed a member of the AI and Ethics Board of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation in September 2023.

India: Born Local, Growing Global

India exemplifies this shift. With a large youth population and a growing entrepreneurial ecosystem, India has seen a surge in startups across technology, e-commerce, and fintech. 

Ritesh Agarwal, founder of OYO Rooms, has revolutionized the hospitality industry by creating a platform that offers affordable and standardized accommodation options to millions globally. Agarwal is a judge on India’s Shark Tank. 

Brothers Nithin and Nikhil Kamath co-founded the discount brokerage Zerodha in 2010, disrupting the brokerage market in India. With 10 million clients, Zerodha is now one of the largest brokerage firms in the country. Their venture capital fund and incubator, Rainmatter, invests in fintech companies and initiatives that promote financial inclusion. Additionally, their investment management firm, True Beacon, targets ultra-high net-worth investors and operates on a zero-fee model.

The Places and Faces of Disruption

These young entrepreneurs from Nigeria, Indonesia, Kenya, and India exemplify the spirit of Exponential Organizations by leveraging technology, innovation, and a deep understanding of their markets. Timing is critical, as they capitalize on their countries’ rapid growth of the internet economy, adoption of smartphones, and increasing demand for online services. They build for their large, growing markets, at times more effectively, than those located at arms' length from places like London, New York, Tokyo, or Geneva.

These entrepreneurs create impactful companies that drive growth and change in their respective industries, showing how the digital age is democratizing opportunity. The barriers to entry to build a new product, service, or solution have never been lower, and they continue to come down.

Learn, Leverage, Lead from Anywhere

For leaders across the planet, it is crucial to see trends and the impact of technology before they become disruptive threats. One way to do that is to apply a simple three-step framework:

1. Learn what trends, such as demographic and population changes, are taking place globally. Consider the impact on industries, economic growth, and geopolitical power.
2. Leverage your network, filling gaps where necessary, so that changes within these markets form a regular part of your global scans and awareness building.
3. Lead by making decisions that factor in this updated worldview and the shifts at play. Prioritise resources accordingly, possibly shifting where you spend time and focus beyond the markets that currently hold the most importance. Start building meaningful relationships in parts of the world crucial to your business, industry, or vision, ensuring that effort is made ahead of time to secure future commercial results.

Distributed power across the world, driven by digitally-enabled youth creating economic opportunities, maybe the antidote the world needs to its current conflicts and crises. Population shifts and technological advancements illustrate the evolving nature of power in our modern world, where the ability to innovate and connect is redefining what it means to hold the pen and fostering peace, not war.

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